NFL Kicker Props: Field Goals, Extra Points and Longest Made Markets
Available in US
Why kicker props sit in their own category
Three seasons ago I backed a kicker at 2.25 to make over 1.5 field goals in a game projected to be a low-scoring grind between two elite defences. Both offences stalled in the red zone exactly as expected, and the kicker went 3-for-3 on field goals. That single bet crystallised something I had suspected for a while — kicker props are the most logically forecastable market on the board, and almost nobody in the UK bothers to look at them.
The neglect is understandable. Kickers are invisible in the weekly NFL conversation. No highlights, no fantasy football relevance, no social media discourse. UK punters follow quarterbacks and skill-position players because that is what the broadcast covers. The kicker trots on, does his job, and trots off. Prop bets as a category already represent 15-20% of total NFL handle at major online sportsbooks, but the share going to kicker-specific markets is a fraction of that fraction — which is precisely what makes them interesting. The books price kicker props with the same margin structure as any other player prop, but the volume flowing into them is far lower. Less volume means less pressure to sharpen the lines, and because kicking is one of the most statistically stable performances in professional sport, the data you need to evaluate these markets is cleaner than anything on the offensive side of the ball.
Field goals made lines
The kicker prop you will encounter most often at UK sportsbooks is the field goals made over/under, usually set at 1.5. The question is straightforward: will this kicker make two or more field goals? The answer depends on factors that are surprisingly quantifiable.
Field goal volume is driven by two things — red-zone efficiency and game total. A team that moves the ball effectively between the 20s but struggles to convert inside the red zone generates field goal attempts. This is counterintuitive for punters accustomed to thinking about offence in binary terms. A middling offence that reaches the opponent’s 35-yard line regularly but stalls before the end zone is a kicker’s best friend. An elite offence that punches in touchdowns on 65% of its red-zone trips leaves its kicker standing on the sideline.
I track two numbers each week: team red-zone touchdown percentage and projected game total. When a team converts touchdowns on fewer than 50% of red-zone trips and the game total sits above 44, the expected field goal volume for that kicker rises above the 1.5 baseline. The price on the over usually reflects this to some degree, but the adjustment is often sluggish at UK books — especially for mid-tier kickers on teams that do not attract public attention.
The 1.5 line is the market standard, and it rarely moves. What moves is the price. An over 1.5 at 1.85 tells a different story from an over 1.5 at 2.30. The first implies the book expects roughly two field goals; the second suggests the base case is closer to one. Getting the price right matters more than the line, because the line almost never shifts to 2.5 outside of the most extreme game environments.
Kicker points scored markets
Kicker points scored is the market that links every other kicker prop into a single number. The line — typically set between 6.5 and 9.5 depending on the game environment — combines field goals (three points each) and extra points (one point each) into a total output figure. It is a composite prop that rewards punters who understand how field goal volume and touchdown frequency interact.
The 2015 NFL rule change that pushed the extra point attempt back to the 33-yard line turned what was once a formality into a genuine variable. Before the change, NFL kickers converted extra points at 99.3%. After the distance increased, the conversion rate dropped to roughly 94%. That 5% miss rate is material across a game with four or five touchdown-driven extra point attempts, and the points scored market captures this uncertainty in a way that the simpler field goals made line does not.
The key insight for kicker points is that the line essentially prices both field goal attempts and touchdowns scored by the kicker’s team. A kicker whose team scores four touchdowns and kicks two field goals earns 10 points. A kicker whose team scores one touchdown and kicks three field goals also earns 10 points. The same number, completely different game narratives. The points market does not distinguish between the two pathways, which means the pricing is sensitive to the game total but relatively insensitive to the method of scoring — and that insensitivity is where occasional mispricings occur.
Longest field goal markets
This is the market that separates casual kicker bettors from people who actually understand how field goal distance works in practice. The “longest field goal made” prop sets an over/under — usually around 39.5, 42.5, or 44.5 yards — on the longest successful kick of the game. It sounds simple. It is not.
The distribution of field goal distances in the NFL is bimodal, not normal. Kickers attempt a cluster of short kicks (under 35 yards) and a separate cluster of long kicks (45 yards and above), with relatively fewer attempts in the 36-44 yard range. This happens because the 36-44 yard zone often corresponds to the area between the red zone and the point where coaches opt to punt. Teams either convert in the red zone (short field goal) or get stopped short and punt. The kicks in between come from specific game situations — end-of-half drives, strategic fourth-down decisions, or unusual field position.
The practical implication is that the over on a longest-made line of 42.5 yards requires a specific game situation to develop. You need a drive that reaches approximately the opponent’s 25-yard line but stalls before the red zone, or you need an end-of-half scramble where the team gets into long-range field goal territory. These situations are partially predictable through game environment — high-scoring games generate more possessions, which generate more chances for drives to stall in that critical distance range. I lean toward the over when the game total is above 47 and both kickers have demonstrated accuracy from 50-plus yards during the season.
Weather, altitude and indoor stadium effects
Weather is the hidden variable that separates profitable kicker prop bettors from the rest. Wind and cold affect kicking accuracy far more than they affect passing or rushing. A kicker performing in Green Bay in December faces different conditions from the same player in a dome game in Las Vegas, and I have watched UK books price kicker props identically for dome games and outdoor cold-weather fixtures involving the same kicker — a pricing error you can exploit if you are paying attention to the forecast.
Wind matters more than temperature. A sustained crosswind above 15 mph reduces accuracy from 50-plus yards by a measurable margin and increases the probability of missed extra points. The books know this in theory but underadjust in practice, particularly at the kicker level where trading desk attention is minimal. My rule is simple: in games with wind forecasts above 15 mph, I move my kicker projections downward by 10-15% and look for overs that are now overpriced relative to the adjusted expectation.
Altitude is less discussed but relevant for specific venues. Denver’s mile-high elevation produces longer field goal distances — the thinner air reduces drag, and kickers routinely connect from distances that would be out of range at sea level. The longest-made prop for games at the Denver venue consistently skews toward the over, and the market has not fully adjusted for this structural advantage. Dome stadiums remove weather variance entirely, which makes dome kicker props the cleanest data set for analysis — no wind, no cold, no rain, just the kicker and the distance.
For the broader special teams context in which kicker props operate — including return touchdowns and blocked kicks — the special teams props guide covers the adjacent markets that share the same game environment as kicking.
Do extra points count toward a kicker’s points scored prop?
Yes. Kicker points scored props at UK sportsbooks include both field goals (three points each) and successful extra points (one point each). A kicker who converts four extra points and two field goals scores 10 points total for prop settlement purposes.
How do UK books settle a missed-then-retried field goal?
If a field goal is missed but a penalty gives the kicking team another attempt and the kicker converts, the made field goal counts toward prop settlement. The missed attempt does not count against a field goals made line. Settlement is always based on official NFL scoring records, which credit the made kick regardless of whether a prior attempt was missed and replayed due to penalty.
Are kicker props available in pre-season?
Rarely. Most UK sportsbooks do not offer kicker props for NFL pre-season games because starters often play limited snaps and multiple kickers may appear in the same game. Kicker prop availability begins with the Week 1 regular season and runs through the Super Bowl, with the widest menus appearing for primetime fixtures and playoff games.
Created by the ”Prop Bets for nfl” editorial team.
